Market Recap* – Week of Nov 10

1. What happened in the markets?

Canadian equities posted a modest gain. Early strength came from rising commodity prices and a rebound in metal and mining names. Momentum faded later in the week as global rate concerns and slower growth expectations resurfaced. The Bank of Canada’s latest sentiment survey pointed to a meaningful risk of recession in the months ahead. That, combined with cautious investor sentiment, tempered the upside. On the fiscal front, the federal budget emphasized heavy infrastructure and defence investment, supporting a longer-term growth narrative.

U.S. equities edged higher over the week. Gains were modest. Large technology and AI stocks recovered after earlier volatility, helping lift the market. Investors remained focused on whether current valuations are justified, but the market still managed to grind higher. Rate expectations also played a role. While Federal Reserve officials signaled, they may not rush into cutting rates, the absence of negative surprises helped support equities. The recent government shutdown still delayed key economic releases, which limited conviction. But overall, the tone leaned slightly positive as markets looked past near-term uncertainty.

Overall, equities were pushed and pulled between pockets of strong fundamentals and concerns around valuations, growth, and policy direction.

Canadian bond prices were largely unchanged. Markets stayed in wait-and-see mode as investors tried to gauge how long rates will stay at current levels. The Bank of Canada reiterated that future moves depend on continued progress on inflation, which kept trading subdued. Note: inflation data released after the period came in cooler, which may support bond prices going forward.

Money market conditions remained stable. With central bank policy on hold and growth signals mixed, investors continued to favor safety and liquidity.

The Canadian dollar also traded flat against the U.S. dollar. Markets saw little reason to take strong positions while awaiting clearer economic signals and central bank guidance.

2. What does it mean for Embark Funds?

Asset class	Change	Impact on cohorts
Canadian Equities	↑	Slight gains support younger cohorts with higher equity exposure. Commodity strength helped early in the week.
U.S. Equities	↑	Modest gains provided a small boost for younger, growth-oriented cohorts. Strength in major tech and AI names supported performance, even as rate uncertainty and delayed data kept sentiment cautious.
Bonds	→	Flat bond prices provided stability for older cohorts focused on income, with limited movement as markets await clearer rate signals.
Money Market	→	Stable conditions continued to benefit capital-preservation and income focused investors without meaningful upside or downside.
Canadian Dollar	→ CAD	A flat currency had little effect on portfolio returns. Limited impact across cohorts while markets wait for clearer economic data.